First, for some good news (much needed). Pfizer announced today that initial analysis of its vaccine which is currently in its Phase 3 trials may be showing an estimated 90% efficacy. Though they have not yet completed their analysis, they anticipate reaching their desired threshold of cases soon and plan on petitioning for emergency use authorization by the FDA as soon as two months have passed since their first test subjects are two months post-vaccination. This could mean they are able to apply for authorization around Thanksgiving.
Some additional good news, though cases are skyrocketing at the Local, State, and National level, deaths have not yet began to spike significantly. Though they are again averaging approximately 1,000/day nationally, they are well below the 2,000-3,000 seen daily in late April/early May and are still trending slightly lower than the second wave in August. That being said, this news must be viewed with some caution as the average elapsed time from infection to death ranges from 2-3 weeks, and as such should the accelerated growth we are currently see continue, we can anticipate mortality too as well especially as medical resources begin to become strained.
On the topic of case growth, the daily case growth rates continue to rise significantly.
Dayton/Montgomery County 1.51% (10/26 – 11/2)
Ohio 1.40% (10/26 – 11/2)
United States 1.04% (11/3 – 11/8)
Should these trends continue, and not be mitigated by some external factors such as effective vaccination or new/reestablished social distancing policies from a Local, State, or National level, it is not a matter “If” but rather “When” the healthcare infrastructure begins to show signs of significant strain. Take the below example:
Should Dayton/Montgomery County remain at a 1.25% daily case growth rate
By the end of February we could see a total of roughly 49,000 cases in the region
With a 1.00% observed mortality rate (1.39% currently in the region) that would mean roughly 490 deaths in Dayton/Montgomery County (we are currently at 193)
If just 20% of them were “active” on that day, that would mean 9,800 active cases in the region on a single day
If just 10% of those “active” cases required hospitalization, that would be 980 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in the region
If just 20% of hospitalized cases require ICU care, that would mean 196 ICU beds in the region being utilized for COVID-19 patients
Couple this data with the typical need for ICU capacity during the peak influenza season and area hospitals will very likely be in serious trouble.
Weekly-Operational-Report-11-8-2020